Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Romney Leads Pack in Latest Poll

The newest poll from Fox News has Romney garnering the highest percentage of those picking their first and their second choice for the GOP nomination:

First Choice
Romney--18%
Perry--13%
Bachmann--11%
Giuliani--10%
Palin--8%
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Pawlenty--3%
Huntsman--3%
Gingrich--3%
Santorum--2%

Second Choice
Romney--18%
Bachmann--17%
Palin--10%
Giuliani--9%
Cain--6%
Gingrich--6%
Perry--5%
Paul--4%
Pawlenty--2%
Huntsman--2%
Santorum--2%

When Palin was removed as a choice, respondents selected (with change in parenthesis):
Romney--20% (+2)
Perry--14% (+1)
Bachmann--12% (+1)
Giuliani--11% (+1)
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Gingrich--3%
Pawlenty--3%
Hunstman--3%
Santorum--2%

 When Giuliani was removed a choice, respondents chose (with change in parenthesis):
Romney--22% (+4)
Perry--14% (+1)
Bachmann--13% (+2)
Palin--9% (+1)
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Gingrich--4% (+1)
Pawlenty--3%
Hunstman--3%
Santorum--3% (+1)

A few of takeways--people flock to Romney more than any other candidate when their preferred candidate isn't available; this will make it hard for others to overtake Romney since not everyone on this list will run. Second, candidates at the bottom of this list are having a hard time getting any traction. Third, there is a bit of a flavor-of-the-month effect as new entries start of strong, and then seem to fade. It will be interesting to see what happens to Bachmann and Perry.