Monday, September 12, 2011

Scoring the Florida Debate

I know I'm biased, so I'll leave it to the pundits. Everyone agreed--Mitt won.

Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard:

If a debate more than four months before the first vote is cast can influence the outcome of a presidential nomination race, the debate last night among eight Republicans should aid Mitt Romney’s candidacy. Seldom has there been as clear a winner.


Romney was crisp and succinct, prepared and focused, and aggressive in going after his chief rival for the GOP presidential nomination, Texas governor Rick Perry, when he needed to be.  Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, showed once again that he’s a far better candidate now than he was four years ago. 

He did well in these instances, among others:  spelling out the differences between the health care plan he championed in Massachusetts and Obamacare; explaining the problem with the Fair Tax is that it gives short shrift to the middle class; pointing out the built-in advantages Perry has in Texas in governing successfully; and refraining from boasting, except to say that “if America needs a turnaround, that’s what I do.”
...
The candidates were asked what they’d bring to the White House – what thing. Romney gave the best answer after repeating the Winston Churchill quotation that America always does the right thing after trying everything else first. He said he’d bring the bust of Churchill, sent away by President Obama, back to the White House.

Chris Cilliza of the Fix:

WINNERS
* Mitt Romney: Four debates. Four times Romney has wound up in the winner’s circle. It’s not a coincidence. Romney proved yet again that he is the best debater in this field with another solid performance in which he effectively downplayed his liabilities on health care and accentuated his strengths on jobs and the economy. Romney played more offense than he has in previous debates, taking the fight to Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Social Security. He also got a major assist from Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.), both of whom relentlessly bashed Perry. But that’s how debates work. Romney also, smartly, ignored the tea party audience in the hall — who occasionally booed him — and focused his messaging on the much broader audience of people watching the debate on CNN.

Mark Halperin of Time Magazine:


Well prepared and confident when confronting Perry on Social Security, but the crowd was not with him, even when he offered up Tea-pleasing lines. Still, another good night for him in the era of the two-man race: he was on the receiving end of very few shots (and those he got, he deflected pretty well), while it was Perry-as-piƱata night yet again. Romney was not as good (or presidential) as last time, but still best in show.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Only Romney Leads Obama in PA

A new poll surveying the 2012 election in the important state of Pennsylvania shows only Romney leading Obama:

Romney--44%, Obama--42%
Obama--45%, Santorum--43%
Obama--45%, Perry--39%
Obama--47%, Bachmann--39%

Monday, July 18, 2011

Romney Leading Pack in SC

Good news for Mitt with this new poll out of South Carolina:

Romney--25%
Palin--16%
Bachmann--13%
Cain--10%
Giulani--6%
Perry--6%
Gingrich--3%
Santorum--2%
Paul--2%
Huntsman--<1%
Pawlenty--<1%

It seems odd that Perry is so low, being a Southerner, but that may change when he formally announces. And Palin seems unlikely to run, which will also change the results (Giulani likewise). It also seems odd that Hunstman and Pawlenty (and Paul) poll so poorly.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Rep. Chaffetz Endorses Romney over Huntsman

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who worked as Gov. Hunstman's chief of staff, has endorsed Romney over his former boss according to this LA Times article:

"It was a little difficult," Chaffetz said. "Jon Huntsman is a good man, but when your goal is to beat Barack Obama I just think Mitt Romney is in a much better position to do that. He's laid this foundation for years. He's got a wonderful organization, the ability to raise the type of money [needed]. And I just think he's going to make a great president. I think we need that type business background to get our economy back in shape."

Romney leads Obama, fellow Republicans in NH

The latest poll out of New Hampshire looks good for Romney:

GOP Nomination
Romney--35%
Bachmann--12%
Paul--7%
Giuliani--7%
Perry--7%
Pawlenty--3%
Palin--3%
Hunstman--2%
Cain--2%
Gingrich--1%
Santorum--<1%

General Election
Romney--47%, Obama--43%

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Romney Leads Pack in Latest Poll

The newest poll from Fox News has Romney garnering the highest percentage of those picking their first and their second choice for the GOP nomination:

First Choice
Romney--18%
Perry--13%
Bachmann--11%
Giuliani--10%
Palin--8%
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Pawlenty--3%
Huntsman--3%
Gingrich--3%
Santorum--2%

Second Choice
Romney--18%
Bachmann--17%
Palin--10%
Giuliani--9%
Cain--6%
Gingrich--6%
Perry--5%
Paul--4%
Pawlenty--2%
Huntsman--2%
Santorum--2%

When Palin was removed as a choice, respondents selected (with change in parenthesis):
Romney--20% (+2)
Perry--14% (+1)
Bachmann--12% (+1)
Giuliani--11% (+1)
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Gingrich--3%
Pawlenty--3%
Hunstman--3%
Santorum--2%

 When Giuliani was removed a choice, respondents chose (with change in parenthesis):
Romney--22% (+4)
Perry--14% (+1)
Bachmann--13% (+2)
Palin--9% (+1)
Paul--7%
Cain--5%
Gingrich--4% (+1)
Pawlenty--3%
Hunstman--3%
Santorum--3% (+1)

A few of takeways--people flock to Romney more than any other candidate when their preferred candidate isn't available; this will make it hard for others to overtake Romney since not everyone on this list will run. Second, candidates at the bottom of this list are having a hard time getting any traction. Third, there is a bit of a flavor-of-the-month effect as new entries start of strong, and then seem to fade. It will be interesting to see what happens to Bachmann and Perry.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Romney Currently Edges Bachmann in Iowa

Despite plans to not campaign hard for Iowa, Romney currently leads Michele Bachmann, though only slightly, in the latest poll from the Hawkeye State:

Romney--23
Bachmann--22
Gingrich--7
Paul--7

Pawlenty--6
Santorum--4
Huntsman--2



Hat tip and photo from Fox News.